MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT – SPECIAL EDITION

Why everyone is right about real estate, depending on which market they’re in.

A Smart Client Raised a Big Question…

A longtime, savvy client of ours, someone who has bought a tremendous amount of real estate over the years, recently sent us a video claiming condo prices are down substantially.

So it raises a fair question:  with so many conflicting narratives, can everyone actually be right?

The surprising answer: Yes. And here’s why.

This Is Not One Market, It’s Three.

This is the single most significant misunderstanding in real estate commentary today.

Ontario real estate isn’t one market, and at this moment, the gaps between its segments are wider than ever. As luxury agents, we focus primarily on:

• Super-Luxury Market: $5M+
• Luxury Market: $2M+

These two segments behave entirely differently from the overall market.

Today, it feels as though we’re working in three entirely separate ecosystems:

1. Super-Luxury ($5M+)
2. Luxury ($2M–$5M)
3. The Overall Market (all segments combined)

And each is being driven by very different forces.

Why Luxury Outperforms (Even When Headlines Say Otherwise)

Because of widening wealth disparity and concentrated liquidity at the high end, luxury remains extremely resilient.

Super-luxury and luxury buyers are far less sensitive to interest rates.

They’re not relying on traditional financing. They’re driven by lifestyle, wealth preservation, and long-term asset allocation.

Meanwhile…

The overall market is still weighed down by high mortgage rates, behaving in a more traditional boom/bust cycle. This is how two people can look at the same area and come to opposite conclusions, and both be correct.

Real Estate Is Local, Right Down to the Street

We work predominantly across Southern Ontario, where demand remains exceptionally strong. But even within a single region:

• One neighbourhood can be in a lull,
• While the next street over is red hot.

Micro-markets matter more today than ever.

A Decade of Forces That Created Today’s “Flat” Big Picture

Here’s a quick snapshot of what shaped the last 10 years:

2015–2017: – Low-rate environment → explosive luxury demand + strong condo pre-construction cycle.

2020: COVID froze the market for ~6 months as everyone waited for clarity.

2021: Record-shattering rebound fueled by pent-up demand + near-zero interest rates.

2022–2024: Aggressive rate hikes (mortgages jumped from ~2.75% to 6%+) slowed the overall market.

But luxury remained resilient, and cash-heavy buyers continued transacting.

All of these forces counterbalanced each other, creating what now appears to be an overall “flat” decade. But that’s the 10,000-foot view. Inside the segments, the story is much more dynamic.

Where Experts Agree: The Next Cycle Begins in 2026

Across major banks, economists, and institutional analysts, the consensus is clear:

2026 is expected to mark the start of a meaningful upward cycle.

Here’s why:

• Rates are projected to ease.
• Pent-up demand is building.
• Inventory remains consistently high.
• Immigration and interprovincial migration continue to strengthen demand.
• Investors are re-entering as borrowing conditions normalize.

Many forecasts suggest significant appreciation over the next decade, particularly in luxury and trophy assets.

So, Yes, Everyone Could Be Right

The market isn’t crashing.
The market isn’t exploding.

Different segments are doing other things.

What matters is not whether “Ontario is up or down.” But which market you are looking to MOVE into?

Let’s March On.

We’re entering one of the most opportunity-rich environments the luxury market has seen in years.

If you’d like a segment-by-segment valuation of your portfolio or want to position yourself strategically ahead of the 2026 cycle, we’re here.

Reply anytime. WE ARE ALWAYS IN YOUR CORNER!